Don't Wait for the Verdict on Mahomes, Take Buffalo Early This Week
Get in where you fit in while KC is still the fave
Patrick Mahomes, the man who is one half of the most chemistry-laden onscreen pairing of 2020, was absent in the second half of the Chief's 22-17 playoff win at home vs. Buffalo following a concussion.
Kansas City has yet to release its final verdict on Mahomes suiting up vs. Buffalo in the AFC Championship game Sunday, but it's looking not likely.
Quarterbacks following concussion protocols miss an average of a week, and the Chiefs aren't likely to make their franchise's cornerstone roll out like you on a Monday morning hangover Zoom call against the league's suddenly hardest-hitting defense.
In the wake of the Mahomes injury and Kansas City's eventual win, the line was all over the place from Chiefs -4 to -2; if you can buy now, do so as it may swing fully to the Bills' favor by midweek.
John Murray, executive director of the sportsbook at Westgate in Vegas, told ESPN Sunday night that if the ruling on Mahomes becomes official, the Bills will rise to be a "decent favorite" with the line swinging as much as ten points to Bills -7 should KC backup Chad Henne become the third quarterback in the AFC/NFC championship weekend who started his career during the Bush administration. The Bills’ Josh Allen was eight the year Chad Henne got his first NFL start.
Murray noted the biggest bet for NFL championship weekend thus far came in for $20k on the Chiefs -3. Kansas City is not a team notorious for covering in the playoffs and, indeed, fell short of meeting the spread vs. Cleveland. KC has failed to cover in eight of its last nine games, the worst in the NFL in that cohort.
The second-seeded Bills, on the other hand, are still surging, beating the spread for the second week in a row (besting the Ravens 13-3 as 2.5-point favorites) and appearing in the conference title game for the first time since the 1993 season growing ever stingier by the quarter.
The Bills finished No. 28 out of 32 in red-zone defense during the regular season. Opponents had 58 trips inside the 20-yard line and scored 38 touchdowns (65.5%).
But the Bills have tightened up, pressing the Colts for 2 for 5 in red zone opportunities, and the Raves were oh-for-three, lowering opponents' success rate to 20% during their playoff campaign.
At least one bettor seemed to synch up with the Bills Mafia Sunday. He placed a $5,400-per-point bet (why that amount? A s/o to linebacker AJ Klein and his regular appearance on the Bills’ '“Crunchtime Play of the Game” featurette?) on the Bills (getting -3.5) vs. the ravens—which means every point the Bills covered by, he got that amount. His win, $56,700 after the Bills covered by 11.5. Look for imitators this week as Buffalo is tracking to put the defending Super Bowl champs on the receiving end of another double-digit victory.